Now is Not the Time to Sleep on Canada as North American Rivals Play for Olympic Gold

By Scott Lowe – MYHockeyRankings.com

Once every four years the rest of the world is reminded of what us North American hockey fans already know:  When the United States and Canada face off in women’s hockey with a gold medal at stake, those who don’t watch do so at their own risk.

What are they risking?

Missing out on the opportunity to see one of the most exciting and intense athletic battles they might ever witness.

Some of the all-time great international hockey games have been matchups between those two bitter rivals with gold on the line, and somehow as the drama and stakes ramp up, the level of play continues to climb. Almost miraculously, players already known for their incredible performances when the lights are the brightest manage to take their games to new heights in those moments, creating memories and images that last a lifetime.

The two nations will dance again for all the marbles at 1:10 p.m. EST Thursday at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics, but something feels different this time.

Those who only check in on the sport for these mainstream Olympic battles that are televised nationally in the United States seem to believe this game won’t be like all the others.

Many folks act as though they expect an easy victory for the Americans, who breezed past their northern neighbors 5-0 in the preliminary round. They cite that victory along with the dominance of Team USA in this year’s Rivalry Series as evidence that a younger American team with a few new ultra-talented faces may be creating a gap in the rivalry that hasn’t existed in recent memory.

The good folks in Las Vegas have listed the United States as better than a 5-to-1 favorite to capture their third Olympic title in their seventh gold-medal matchup against Canada. Those odds imply a win probability of 85 percent for the Americans.

With all due respect to the bookmakers – and fully understanding that they keep erecting big, beautiful buildings in Vegas for a reason – huh?

Are we sure about that?

Yes, Team USA beat Canada 5-0 in the prelims and swept the Canadians in the rivalry series, winning all four games by a combined 24-7 margin. And the Americans have won the last seven matchups against Canada, including two victories during last April’s Women’s World Championship.

But – and this is a huge BUT – Canada played the most recent game vs. the U.S. without its injured captain, best player and certified Team USA-killer Marie-Philip Poulin, and both U.S. WWC victories were by a single goal.

Sure, hockey is a team sport, but do we actually think Poulin isn’t a huge difference-maker, even at age 34? Really?

Poulin has scored the gold-medal-winning goal three times in the Olympics. Even at less than 100 percent she just willed her team to a 2-1 semifinal victory against Switzerland, scoring twice to become the all-time Olympic women’s hockey leader in goals with 20.

She’s known as “Captain Clutch” for a reason; with yet another title-winning goal at the 2021 Women’s World Championship she completed an unprecedented “golden goal hat trick” at major international championships. But more than being her team’s best and most skilled player, Poulin is Canada’s emotional leader and security blanket. She has served as the team’s captain since 2015.

As legendary Team USA men’s coach Herb Brooks once said, “This is not some throwaway game in Rochester.” This is the Olympics. This is a gold-medal game on the biggest-possible international sports stage under the brightest of lights.

This is when Poulin and her teammates shine.

Of course, the United States sweeping the Rivalry Series coming off a World Championship provided a confidence boost entering the Olympics. More than that, though, those victories gave the coaching and hockey operations staff an opportunity to further evaluate some of their younger up-and-coming stars and make the best possible choices for this year’s Olympic roster.

Those choices have panned out splendidly, with the speed and skill of first-time Olympians such as Laila Edwards, Taylor Heise, Hannah Bilka, Britta Curl-Salemme, Tessa Janecke and Joy Dunne providing an injection of energy and exuberance that has mixed well with veteran stars such as Hilary Knight, Kendall Coyne Schofield and Lee Stecklein. Youthful second-time Olympians Abbey Murphy and Caroline Harvey have emerged and matured into high-level contributors as well.

In all, U.S. Coach John Wroblewki brought 12 first-time Olympians to Italy, and no one can argue with the results. The Americans have won all six of their games to this point by a combined 31-1 margin. That includes an Olympic-record five straight shutout victories.

Also not to be overlooked are the emotional leadership and offensive contributions provided by Knight, the team’s captain and the all-time women’s hockey leader in international scoring. Knight is playing in her fifth and final Olympics, and there’s no doubt that her teammates are driven to give her a proper sendoff by helping her win a second gold medal.

“It’s an honor to see how she goes ⁠about things on a day-to-day basis,” Heise, a former Professional Women’s Hockey League first overall draft pick, said of her captain. “She’s a leader that doesn’t always say the most, but her actions mean everything … We are not here without her. She’s amazing. She teaches us how to get better. She’s a large reason why we’re here.”

Knight laid the foundation for her teammate’s sentiments last June.

"I would like to go out from my Olympic career on a high note, sort of that storybook ending," Knight said upon announcing her international retirement. "Another gold medal would be awesome."

BUT, yeah that’s right, here’s another big one to consider.

Canada’s veteran-laden team – all 23 players have professional experience competing in the PWHL – was pretty much set prior to the Rivalry Series, so the objectives during those games likely was to determine a few final roster spots, build some chemistry and not get hurt. Certainly, any USA vs. Canada hockey matchup is going to get the juices flowing, but those literally were exhibition games.

Thursday’s game is what matters.

"This is what we have had circled and had in mind since Beijing when we won gold, to do it again," Canadian defender Renata Fast told reporters after Canada’s semifinal victory. "We are excited. It has not been the easiest path, but this group has a lot of fight in them, and we are excited to represent our country with pride.”

Canada vs. the USA in women’s hockey is one of the most heated rivalries in all of sports, and opportunities to compete in the Olympics are limited since they are held once every four years. It’s rare that even the best players will get more than two or three shots at winning an Olympic gold medal, so while Vegas may say otherwise, the smart bet is that the Canadians will show up more than ready to play and that this championship tilt also will be an instant classic that goes down to the wire.

"That's what we work for, those are four years in the process when you work for that moment, so it will be an exciting game," Poulin told reporters in Milan earlier this week.

The Canadian lineup will include as many as 16 players who played for the gold medal four years ago in Beijing, including goalie Ann-Rene Desbiens, who compiled a .956 save percentage in two games vs. the Americans that year.

Poulin is playing in her fifth Olympic final. Natalie Spooner, Brianne Jenner and Jocelyne Larocque are playing in their fourth gold-medal game and six more players are back for the third time. Veteran forward Sarah Nurse set the Olympic scoring record with 18 points in Beijing.

Now is simply not the time to write off Team Canada, which also boasts younger players with star potential in Sarah Fillier, a former No. 1 overall PWHL draft pick; Julia Gosling; Jenn Gardiner; and Daryl Watts, each of whom was born between 1999 and 2001.

It’s just not realistic to believe that a U.S. team that skated to a pair of one-goal victories at the WWC in April suddenly is three or four goals better than its biggest rival. That doesn’t mean the Americans shouldn’t be favored, but history suggests that making the U.S. a 5-to-1 favorite is ridiculous.

The nations have met with a gold medal at stake in 22 of the last 23 international tournaments that have been contested. Those games have been decided by a single goal 16 times, with 11 requiring overtime. Canada has 13 WWC gold medals to the USA’s 11, and the Canadians own a 4-2 advantage in Olympic gold-medal matchups. Canada has won seven of 11 Olympic matchups overall.

As dominant as Team USA has been in Italy, Canada still enters the championship game with a power play that has converted 37 percent of the time (7-for-19) against teams that didn’t have USA on their jerseys. The Canadians have allowed just eight goals in winning five of their six games.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has been the tournament’s least-penalized team and has yet to allow a power-play goal. The Americans have scored at least five goals in every contest, with 15 different players tallying.

As they say, though, we can throw all the stats out the window when two heated rivals meet. No matter who wins, the United States and Canada will remain the only two nations to have won Olympic gold medals in women’s hockey.

And no matter what happens on the ice, hockey fans and the sport of women’s hockey will be the big winners.

In this age of FOMO, no one wants to risk missing out on something that everyone will be talking about tomorrow, right?

See you there at 1:10 p.m. EST. It should be epic, as usual.